猪肉旺季不旺陷入困境，猪肉养殖端全面亏损

Core Insights - The pork industry is facing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) situation, with both futures and spot prices experiencing unexpected declines [1][2] - The main futures contract for live pigs closed at 11,125 yuan/ton on October 13, marking a 2.88% drop and a cumulative decline of 21% for the year, with prices down over 40% from last year's peak [1] - Spot pork prices have also fallen continuously since the third quarter, currently reported at 10.92 yuan/kg, below 11 yuan/kg [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The imbalance between supply and demand is leading to persistent price declines, with high levels of breeding sows and weak consumer demand [1] - The current supply situation is not expected to improve in the short term, indicating limited upward price momentum for pork [1] - Companies in the pork sector have increased their slaughter volumes in September to compensate for lower prices [1] Industry Performance Outlook - The performance of listed pork companies is likely to show a year-on-year decline in the third quarter due to insufficient capacity reduction and high prices from the previous year [1] - The continuous decline in pork prices since October is expected to cast a shadow over the fourth-quarter performance of listed pork companies [1] Capacity Reduction and Policy Impact - The pig farming industry entered a capacity reduction phase in July, but prices have accelerated downward since the third quarter, reflecting slower-than-expected capacity reduction progress [1] - According to policy guidance, reducing the number of breeding sows to around 39.5 million could positively impact pork prices [2]