市场避险情绪增强，黄金配置价值延续

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising geopolitical tensions, with potential for further upward movement in the short term [1][6]. Economic Overview - The U.S. consumer confidence index slightly decreased to 55, marking a five-month low, attributed to a slowing job market and persistent inflation [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing sector shows resilience, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.1, indicating a slight recovery in production and employment, despite a drop in new orders [2]. - High-frequency data indicates sustained consumer spending momentum, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting a 3.8% annualized growth rate for Q3 [3]. Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with a consensus to lower rates by 25 basis points [4]. - Political uncertainties have escalated, with the U.S. government shutdown affecting federal operations and delaying key economic data releases [5]. Gold Market Insights - The ongoing government shutdown and political deadlock are eroding the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves continues, with China's reserves rising to 7.406 million ounces, reflecting a sustained demand for gold [8]. - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins on dollar credibility could influence gold prices, depending on the stability of these digital assets [7].