Core Viewpoint - The report by Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson indicates that if the U.S.-China trade tensions are not resolved by the November deadline, U.S. stocks could face a potential decline of up to 11% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is at a critical point for a correction due to high investor positioning and elevated valuations [1] - The escalation of the trade war last week was unexpected by both the market consensus and Morgan Stanley [1] Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If trade uncertainties or volatility persist until early November, the market correction could exceed most expectations [1] - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to a range of 6027 to 5800 points, representing a decline of 8% to 11% from last Friday's closing price [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a basic expectation that once trade tensions ease, the economy will gradually recover and continue until 2026 [1] - The argument for economic recovery is strong enough to withstand short-term strategic trade frictions, provided that the situation ultimately calms down [1]
大摩：若紧张局势持续 标普500指数恐跌11%
Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-10-13 12:41