程实：货币政策跨境传导的美元渠道︱实话世经

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the dollar channel as a significant mechanism for the cross-border transmission of monetary policy, highlighting its role in influencing global financial stability and the challenges it poses for central banks [1][6]. Group 1: Limitations of Traditional Monetary Policy Transmission - Traditional theories of monetary policy spillover effects focus on interest rate differentials and trade competitiveness, but these channels are increasingly inadequate in explaining real-world capital flows [2][3]. - The interest rate differential can indicate the direction of capital flows but fails to capture their scale and volatility, as investor behavior is also influenced by risk preferences and market sentiment [2]. - The trade competitiveness channel is limited in a dollar-dominated global trade system, where exchange rate fluctuations do not effectively translate into trade price adjustments [3]. Group 2: Impact of Dollar Appreciation on Financing Costs - Dollar appreciation leads to increased financing costs for U.S. companies, particularly in the leveraged loan market, which is sensitive to changes in risk appetite [4][5]. - A 1% appreciation of the dollar results in an increase of 6-7 basis points in leveraged loan spreads, which can rise to approximately 13.8 basis points when controlling for the Eurozone yield curve [4]. - Higher-risk loans exhibit greater sensitivity to dollar fluctuations, with spreads increasing significantly more than lower-risk loans during dollar appreciation [5]. Group 3: Dollar Channel's Role in Global Monetary Policy and Risk Cycles - The dollar channel serves as both a conduit for policy transmission and an amplifier of risk cycles, potentially limiting the independence of U.S. monetary policy [6]. - Dollar fluctuations create a self-reinforcing cycle between risk sentiment and financing conditions, exacerbating the pro-cyclical nature of the financial system [6]. - The dynamics of a strong or weak dollar complicate policy decisions for central banks, necessitating a careful balance between domestic monetary policy effects and external spillover impacts [7].