A股底层逻辑转变，卖方唱多，看好券商板块战略配置机会

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming quarterly reports from listed securities firms are expected to show significant profit growth, driven by increased market trading volume and improved performance in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][3][4]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - Seven sell-side research institutions, including Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, predict that the net profit of listed securities firms for the first three quarters will exceed expectations, with some forecasts suggesting a year-on-year increase of over 50% [1][2]. - A specific forecast indicates that the net profit for Q3 could see a year-on-year increase of up to 87% [1]. - Analysts expect that the net profit for Q3 will reach approximately 672 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [4][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The trading volume in the equity market has significantly increased, with the average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 1.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.61% [6]. - The margin financing scale remains high, with a financing scale of 2.38 trillion yuan at the end of Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 66% [7]. - The number of new investor accounts opened in Q3 reached 7.55 million, a year-on-year increase of 357.31% [6]. Group 3: Business Segment Contributions - Brokerage, credit, investment banking, and asset management revenues are expected to show strong growth, with brokerage revenue projected to increase by 87% year-on-year [4]. - The asset management business is also improving, with new non-monetary and equity funds issued increasing by 5% and 183% year-on-year, respectively [8]. - The proprietary trading business is expected to see a year-on-year revenue increase of 23% [4]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The securities sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with a public fund holding of only 0.90%, significantly below the benchmark of 4.26% [10]. - Analysts emphasize the potential for valuation recovery in the securities sector, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.58, which is at the 45.7 percentile of the past decade [10][11]. - The strategic positioning of the securities sector is highlighted, with a focus on capturing high-value investment opportunities amid changing market dynamics [11].