Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-13 13:25Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a notable rebound on October 13, with the China Securities Banking Index rising by 0.75%, led by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, which saw a 5.66% increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards banking stocks as a temporary safe haven amidst broader market fluctuations [2][3]. Market Performance - The banking sector ranked fifth among 31 primary industries, with several banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (5.66%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (4.16%), and Nanjing Bank (3.79%), showing significant gains [3]. - In contrast, most state-owned banks continued to decline, with Postal Savings Bank down by 0.88% and China Bank down by 0.57%, highlighting a divergence in performance between smaller regional banks and larger state-owned banks [3][5]. Recent Trends - Since July, the banking sector has faced a cumulative decline of 14%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index increased by over 11% and 15%, respectively, indicating a shift in investor preference away from banks [5]. - The recent rise in banking stocks is attributed to a change in market style, with public funds possibly seeking refuge in banking stocks due to their stable dividends and attractive valuations after a period of decline [5][6]. Impact of External Factors - The announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. is expected to have a controlled impact on banks, particularly affecting regional banks with higher exposure to foreign trade [6][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may increase demand for defensive investments, potentially benefiting the banking sector as dividend yields become more attractive [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the banking sector may see a rebound as the end of the year approaches, with stable dividend payouts and a favorable interest rate spread compared to government bonds [7][9]. - The anticipated increase in public loans and the potential easing of the "asset shortage" environment in the fourth quarter could provide further support for bank performance [9].