诺奖得主菲利普·阿吉翁：技术革命会导致大规模失业吗？

Core Insights - The article discusses the delay between the emergence of general-purpose technologies and subsequent economic growth acceleration, questioning why previous technological revolutions did not lead to mass unemployment as feared by historical figures like Ned Ludd and John Maynard Keynes. It also explores the future of the artificial intelligence revolution in terms of job creation versus destruction [1][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of General-Purpose Technologies - General-purpose technologies are characterized by three fundamental features: they spawn numerous secondary waves of innovation, they improve over time leading to reduced user costs, and they become ubiquitous across all sectors of the economy [3][4]. - Secondary innovations are crucial as they adapt general-purpose technologies to specific sector needs, enhancing productivity and serving as a source of long-term growth. However, these innovations require time and resource reallocation, which can temporarily lower GDP growth rates [5][8]. Group 2: Delays in Technology Adoption - There are instances where society may never optimally adopt new technologies due to a lack of secondary innovations or widespread acceptance, leading to missed opportunities for productivity improvements [7]. - The transition from old to new general-purpose technologies often intensifies the process of creative destruction, as new firms can avoid the costs associated with transitioning from outdated technologies [8]. Group 3: Impact on Employment - Historical perspectives reveal that fears of machines destroying jobs have existed for centuries, but technological advancements have often led to positive effects on production, exports, and employment [13][14]. - Automation has been shown to create more jobs than it destroys, with studies indicating that a 1% increase in automation can lead to a 0.25% increase in employment two years later and a 0.4% increase ten years later [15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion on Technological Revolutions - The article challenges two common misconceptions: that technological revolutions inevitably lead to accelerated growth and that they are detrimental to employment. While growth may accelerate, it often requires a time lag, and inappropriate institutional frameworks can hinder the potential benefits of new technologies [17][18].