Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable monetary policy with significant liquidity injections through reverse repos, despite upcoming large-scale maturities and external disturbances in the financial market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On October 13, the PBOC conducted a 1.378 trillion yuan (approximately 137.8 billion) 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1.378 trillion yuan [1]. - From September 28 to October 11, the PBOC had a net withdrawal of 1.3304 trillion yuan through reverse repos, but subsequently announced a 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month buyout reverse repo operation [1]. - The upcoming week (October 13-17) will see a decrease in reverse repo maturities to 1.021 trillion yuan, with significant amounts maturing on Thursday and Friday [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Outlook - Despite the pressure from upcoming reverse repo maturities, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable due to limited government bond net payments and delayed tax periods [2][3]. - The liquidity test in October is anticipated to be concentrated at the end of the month, with tax reporting deadlines pushed to October 27, coinciding with the month-end [3]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's continued use of longer-term tools like MLF and buyout repos indicates a commitment to maintaining liquidity, with expectations that funding rates will remain low [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The liquidity gap in October is expected to be weaker than seasonal trends, with the PBOC's monetary policy remaining accommodative, thus limiting risks of liquidity tightening [3]. - If the PBOC continues to provide support through reverse repos and potentially reintroduces other measures, the funding environment could become more favorable, leading to lower volatility [4].
一周流动性观察 | 节后买断式逆回购操作释放积极信号 资金利率或低位运行
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-10-13 02:33