券商业绩高增预期背后的多重积极信号

Core Insights - The performance of the brokerage sector in the A-share market is expected to show a year-on-year net profit growth of over 50% in Q3, indicating a robust growth trend characterized by "increased growth and optimized structure" [1] Group 1: Market Confidence Recovery - The high growth in brokerage performance reflects a substantial recovery in market confidence and activity, with September seeing 2.9372 million new A-share accounts opened, a 10.83% month-on-month increase, marking the second-highest monthly account opening this year [2] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 21,053 billion yuan in Q3, a 212% year-on-year increase, alongside a continuous rise in margin financing balances, indicating a significant increase in investor risk appetite and market participation [2] - The A-share IPO fundraising scale grew by 67% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the financing scale of private placements (excluding the four major banks) increased by 123%, showcasing the enhanced effectiveness of the capital market in serving the real economy [2] Group 2: Business Structure Optimization - The current high growth in brokerage performance is attributed not only to market recovery but also to a shift in business structure from "high volatility cycles" to "steady growth," with traditional businesses like brokerage and proprietary trading maintaining elasticity [3] - The proportion of fee-based income from wealth management and institutional business is steadily increasing, contributing to a more resilient revenue structure that mitigates the impact of market fluctuations [3] - The industry is transitioning towards high-value-added wealth management and institutional services, enhancing operational resilience and moving away from the traditional reliance on market conditions [3] Group 3: Valuation and Growth Discrepancy - Despite strong performance, the brokerage sector remains undervalued, with a price-to-book ratio around 1.5, indicating a mismatch between high growth and low valuation [4] - The sector's growth potential is being overlooked due to traditional perceptions of brokerages as "cyclical" entities, while the transformation towards wealth management and institutional services injects long-term growth momentum [4] - As performance continues to improve, the brokerage sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment, highlighting its investment appeal and role in supporting the high-quality development of the capital market [4]