风险资产大跌，避险情绪将推升贵金属价格

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by increased risk aversion among investors following a significant drop in risk assets. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates further supports the bullish outlook for gold prices [2][8]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $3974.50 per ounce, up $88.80 per ounce from October 3, marking a 2.29% increase. Silver prices were $50.76 per ounce, up $3.16 per ounce, a 6.63% increase [2]. - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus among officials that the importance of recent employment growth slowdown outweighs concerns about persistent high inflation, leading to a 0.25 percentage point rate cut to a range of 4% to 4.25% [2]. Copper - LME copper closed at $10,765 per ton, an increase of $200 per ton (1.89%) from October 3. SHFE copper closed at 85,900 CNY per ton, up 2,550 CNY per ton (3.06%) [3]. - Supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, with significant production downgrades from major mines due to operational issues [4]. Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices were 21,020 CNY per ton, up 290 CNY per ton from September 30. LME aluminum inventory decreased to 508,825 tons [5]. - The supply side remains rigid due to policy constraints, and downstream demand recovery appears weak, indicating a potential for high price volatility [5]. Tin - Domestic refined tin prices rose to 288,830 CNY per ton, a 5.16% increase from September 30. Supply issues are exacerbated by low operating rates in major producing regions and slow recovery in Myanmar [6]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell to 167,500 CNY per ton, down 1,000 CNY (0.59%) from September 30. Both supply and demand are weak, with low-grade raw materials being difficult to source [7]. Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries, reflecting a positive outlook based on current market conditions and supply dynamics [9][10].