October volatility is perfectly normal, says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick

Market Overview - The S&P experienced significant volatility with a drop of 200 points followed by a recovery of about 105 points, indicating a seasonal pullback after a long period of low volatility [1][2] - October is noted for having more 1% moves than any other month, suggesting a historical pattern of increased volatility during this time [3] Market Performance - The market had a streak of 33 trading days without a 1% move, the longest since before COVID-19, indicating a period of stability that was likely due for a correction [1][2] - Historical data shows that after a 36% rally in 6 weeks, a pullback may be expected, as indicated by the current market conditions [6][7] Sector Analysis - Certain sectors such as regional banks and housing are lagging, while high-yield credit is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns about market internals [5][6] - Despite some weaknesses, the overall sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in the bull market [8][9] Bull Market Insights - The current bull market is noted to be strong, having gained over 35% in the last 6 months, with historical trends suggesting that such gains typically lead to further increases one year later [8][9] - The average duration of bull markets that reach a similar point is around 8 years, indicating potential longevity for the current market [9][10] Investment Strategy - The focus remains on sectors that have driven the market, such as industrials, cyclicals, and financials, with a preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap [11][12] - A diversified portfolio is recommended, with an overweight position in equities, particularly in developed international markets [12] Earnings Outlook - Earnings growth for the current quarter is expected to be better than in previous quarters, with positive pre-estimates indicating a more optimistic outlook [13][14] - There is a general expectation that earnings will exceed expectations, reflecting a more favorable sentiment compared to earlier periods [14]