人为干扰威胁全球贸易增长根基

Group 1 - The global trade system is under significant pressure from unilateralism and trade policy uncertainty, threatening long-term growth and economic stability [1][2] - The WTO has drastically lowered its global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from 1.8% predicted in August, indicating potential stagnation in global trade [1][2] - The IMF warns that the full impact of tariff policies has yet to be felt, suggesting that the global economy's resilience is about to be tested [1][2] Group 2 - Unilateral tariff barriers set by the U.S. are directly damaging the global trade order, with potential long-term consequences for economic growth and trade rules [2] - Developing countries may face severe repercussions from U.S. tariff policies, risking marginalization in global value chains due to high transportation costs and tariffs [2] - Structural changes in the global trade system are underway, with warnings that further tariff increases could lead to decreased global output and rising inflation [2] Group 3 - The maintenance of a rules-based multilateral trade system is essential for addressing the current crisis, with various countries advocating for WTO reform and commitment to its principles [3] - Many countries are opting for enhanced international cooperation to counteract uncertainty, with businesses adjusting supply chain strategies to focus on regional markets [3] - Emerging areas such as digital trade and green transformation present new opportunities for sustainable global trade development, with China playing a stabilizing role [3]