新上任费城联储主席首次公开发声 支持今年再降息两次

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Anna Paulson, expressed a preference for two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, suggesting that monetary policy should "ignore" the short-term price increases caused by tariffs, as these shocks are not expected to lead to persistent inflation [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Paulson stated that the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve was "reasonable," and the current monetary policy remains in a "moderately tight" state, indicating that further easing aligns with the Fed's latest economic projections [1] - The median expectations from the September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggest that Federal Reserve officials anticipate two more rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - Paulson noted that if economic trends align with expectations, the policy adjustments this year and next will be sufficient to maintain the labor market close to full employment [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - In discussing inflation, Paulson projected a slight increase in commodity prices over the next few quarters, but long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with no signs of "worrisome spillover effects" [1] - She highlighted a recent slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a weakening momentum in the labor market [1] Group 3: Economic Growth - Paulson indicated that the U.S. economy is expected to maintain growth above trend in the third quarter, following a second quarter that exceeded market expectations [2] - However, she cautioned that the growth foundation is becoming narrower, with consumer spending increasingly reliant on high-income households, which are benefiting from the stock market boom driven by a few AI-related tech giants [2] - Concerns have emerged among business contacts regarding future demand, which warrants close monitoring [2]