Enphase Energy (ENPH) Laps the Stock Market: Here's Why

Core Viewpoint - Enphase Energy's stock performance has been mixed, with a recent increase but a notable decline over the past month, and upcoming earnings expectations indicate a potential year-over-year decline in earnings and revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Enphase Energy closed at $34.82, reflecting a +1.6% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.56% [1]. - The stock has decreased by 8.93% over the past month, underperforming compared to the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 2.93% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.41% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - Enphase Energy is set to release its earnings report on October 28, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.61 per share, representing a year-over-year decline of 6.15% [2]. - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $359.39 million, indicating a 5.64% decrease from the same quarter last year [2]. Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $2.63 per share and revenue at $1.45 billion, showing increases of +10.97% and +8.74% respectively from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Stock Performance - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Enphase Energy suggest a shifting business landscape, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [3][4]. - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates these estimate changes, provides actionable insights for investors [4]. Group 5: Zacks Rank and Valuation - Enphase Energy currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate increasing by 1.26% over the last 30 days [5]. - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 13.02, which is below the industry average of 16.67, indicating a valuation discount [6]. Group 6: Industry Context - The solar industry, part of the Oils-Energy sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 93, placing it in the top 38% of over 250 industries [6]. - Strong individual industry groups, as measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, tend to outperform weaker groups significantly [7].