政局动荡，日本经济飞出“黑天鹅”？

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo financial market is experiencing volatility due to the unexpected announcement by the Komeito party to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to concerns about political uncertainty and potential market instability [1][2]. Market Reaction - Following the Komeito party's announcement, the Tokyo market saw significant fluctuations, with nearly 90% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange declining, and the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 491.64 points, closing lower than the previous trading day [2][3]. - The yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds rose to 1.7%, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase and the highest level in 17 years, indicating investor skepticism towards the government's fiscal policies [2][3]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest that the dissolution of the ruling coalition could lead to a "black swan" event, where opposition parties might form a coalition government, potentially preventing the LDP's candidate, Sanae Takaichi, from becoming Prime Minister [1][3]. - The political landscape is expected to remain volatile, with further market fluctuations anticipated as the implications of the coalition's breakup unfold [3]. Economic Policy Outlook - Despite the political turmoil, Takaichi's economic policies are still under scrutiny, with a focus on aggressive fiscal expansion to stimulate growth. She aims to activate all remaining growth levers in the Japanese economy [4][5]. - Takaichi is seen as a proponent of "Abenomics 2.0," emphasizing monetary easing, active fiscal policy, and structural reforms, although her ability to implement these policies may be hindered by a lack of majority support in the Diet [4][5]. Economic Challenges - The incoming Prime Minister will face significant challenges, including rising living costs, public dissatisfaction, and pressures from the U.S. regarding increased investments [6][7]. - Japan's economy is grappling with persistent inflation, increasing public debt, and an aging population, all of which complicate the economic recovery efforts [6][7].