今日视点：券商业绩高增预期背后的多重积极信号

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in the A-share market for the third quarter is expected to show a year-on-year net profit growth of over 50%, indicating a robust growth trend characterized by "increased speed and optimized structure" [1] Group 1: Market Confidence Recovery - The high growth in securities firms' performance reflects a substantial recovery in market confidence and vitality, as evidenced by a 10.83% month-on-month increase in new A-share accounts in September, reaching 2.9372 million [2] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares in the third quarter reached 21,053 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 212%, alongside a continuous rise in margin trading balances, indicating a significant increase in investor risk appetite [2] - The capital market's effectiveness in serving the real economy is improving, with IPO fundraising in the first three quarters up 67% year-on-year and private placements (excluding the four major banks) up 123%, showcasing a vibrant direct financing environment [2] Group 2: Business Structure Optimization - The high growth in securities firms' performance is not solely dependent on market cycles but reflects a transition from "high volatility cycles" to "steady growth," with traditional businesses like brokerage and proprietary trading maintaining elasticity [3] - The proportion of fee-based income from wealth management and institutional business is steadily increasing, contributing to a more resilient revenue structure that mitigates the impact of market fluctuations [3] - The industry is transitioning towards high-value-added wealth management and institutional services, enhancing operational resilience and moving away from traditional reliance on market conditions [3] Group 3: Valuation and Growth Discrepancy - Despite strong performance, the securities sector remains undervalued, with a mismatch between high growth and low valuation, as the sector's average price-to-book ratio is around 1.5 times, while the growth rate is not reflected in the market [4] - This discrepancy arises from traditional perceptions of securities firms as "cyclical" entities, overlooking the growth potential from business structure optimization [4] - As performance continues to improve, the securities sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment, highlighting its investment appeal and role in supporting the real economy and resource allocation [4]