贵金属涨疯了！白银时隔45年创新高，黄金突破4130美元

Core Insights - The silver market in London is experiencing a historic short squeeze, driven by renewed trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - Gold prices have surged nearly 60% this year, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and strong demand from central banks [2] - Analysts from major banks predict significant future price increases for both gold and silver, with gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce by 2026 and silver hitting $65 per ounce [3][4] Gold Market Analysis - Gold's price increase is attributed to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [2] - The rise in gold prices is also linked to concerns over the potential disruption of the dollar-based economic order by political actions [2] - The Brookings Institution highlights that the market is trading not just on dollar depreciation but on the general devaluation of all fiat currencies relative to gold [2] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached levels not seen since the 1980s, with New York silver futures rising by 6.8% to $50.13 per ounce [3] - The demand for silver is structurally increasing, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [4] - Analysts note that the silver market has been in a state of deficit since 2021, with a forecasted peak in demand in 2025 due to accelerated solar panel installations in China [4] Supply Constraints - The London silver market is facing significant inventory shortages, with physical silver prices showing a substantial premium over futures prices due to a lack of available stock [5] - The largest silver ETF, SLV, requires 15,415 tons of silver to back its issued shares, equivalent to seven months of global silver production [5] - The current supply tightness is exacerbated by the time required to bring new silver mines into production, which can take about ten years [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing macroeconomic environment will keep safe-haven assets like silver in demand, with prices expected to rise further [4][6] - The silver borrowing rate has surged above 100%, indicating a significant demand for physical silver [6] - Despite the bullish outlook, there are warnings of increased short-term volatility due to overbought technical indicators for both gold and silver [7]