Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-14 00:03Core Viewpoint - The short-term bond market is primarily focused on two key aspects: the sustainability of the recovery sentiment since late September and the impact of escalating China-U.S. trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - Since September 25, the bond market has experienced a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield declining by 9 basis points from its peak over the past 8 trading days [1] - The recovery has been substantial, indicating a significant adjustment in market sentiment [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - The intensification of China-U.S. trade tensions is viewed as a tactical move rather than a long-term trend, with the ongoing decoupling between the two economies being a broader concern [1] - The bond market's reaction to these tensions has been limited, as it has adapted to the ongoing trade conflict since its escalation in April [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - While the bond market shows a higher probability of favorable outcomes in the short term, caution is advised against excessive chasing of gains [1]