Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-14 00:27Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance is expected to report a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with estimates ranging from 29.99 billion to 34.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q3 2025 is projected to be between 15.19 billion and 19.32 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 58.2% to 101.3% [1] - The cumulative profit for the first three quarters of 2025 has already surpassed the total profit for the entire year of 2024, which was 26.23 billion yuan [1] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach historical highs, with a static ROE for the first three quarters estimated at 36% to 41%, and an annualized ROE for 2025 projected at 47.9% to 54.5% [1] Investment Gains - The increase in profit is attributed to a substantial rise in investment income, driven by three main factors: 1. Continuous growth in equity investment scale, reaching 361.1 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025, a 7.04% increase from the beginning of the year and a 30.4% year-on-year increase [2] 2. Strong performance in the equity market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 17.9% in Q3 2025, outperforming the 16.1% increase in the same period last year [2] 3. Changes in investment measurement rules for Hangzhou Bank, which is expected to contribute positively to profits [2] New Business Value (NBV) and Asset Pressure - The NBV growth rate is anticipated to remain stable in Q3 2025, supported by lower preset interest rates and adjustments in settlement rates [3] - There is an expectation of improved net asset pressure due to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield by 21.4 basis points, which may help mitigate the impact of bond depreciation and declines in OCI stocks [3] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a strong buy rating, with expectations of rapid growth in NBV and premiums, alongside record highs in profit and ROE [4] - Projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 38.1 billion, 41.7 billion, and 44.6 billion yuan, with growth rates of 45.1%, 9.6%, and 7.0% respectively [4] - The projected NBV for the same period is expected to be 9.83 billion, 10.9 billion, and 11.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 57.2%, 10.8%, and 9.2% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/EV multiples of 0.65, 0.58, and 0.53 for 2025 to 2027 [4]