9月狭义乘用车市场销量预计同比增长2%，建议关注三季报行情

Core Insights - The automotive market in China showed positive growth in August, with retail sales reaching 1.995 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a month-on-month increase of 8.2% [2][3] - In September, the cumulative registration of domestic passenger cars reached 1.9989 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while new energy vehicles (NEVs) saw a significant year-on-year increase of 13.2% with 1.1667 million units registered [2][3] - The production and sales figures for August were 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, reflecting month-on-month increases of 8.7% and 10.1%, and year-on-year increases of 13% and 16.4% [2][3] Market Performance - The CS automotive sector rose by 6.38% in September, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite index by 5.73 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the CS automotive sector has increased by 54.34%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices, which rose by 35.25% and 30.52% respectively [3] Cost Tracking - As of September 30, 2025, prices for float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots showed year-on-year changes of +7.4%, +3.7%, and -10.7% respectively, with month-on-month changes of +5.4%, -0.1%, and -1.6% [3] Inventory Levels - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers in September 2025 was 54.5%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, remaining above the threshold [3] Market Focus - The report highlights advancements in autonomous driving and robotics, including Tesla's FSD version updates and various companies launching robotaxi services [4] - There is a strong emphasis on the growth of new energy vehicles and the introduction of new models from various manufacturers, including Tesla and Geely [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands and electric vehicle trends, recommending companies like Leap Motor, JAC Motors, and Geely for their strong new product cycles [5] - It also highlights opportunities in the smart technology sector with companies like Coboda and Huayang Group, as well as in the robotics sector with Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [5]