炼化行业以“提质”破局“内卷”

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese refining industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement," necessitating a restructuring of industry structure, technological pathways, and market landscape [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The refining industry is facing intensified "involution" competition due to tightening market demand, with gasoline and diesel consumption showing a downward trend, leading to a "double decline" in production and consumption in the first half of 2025 [2] - Continuous capacity expansion is occurring, with refining capacity expected to reach approximately 955 million tons per year in 2024, operating at around 75% utilization [2] - The downstream chemical sector is also experiencing "involution," with a significant increase in the production capacity of olefins and aromatics, which has now reached a state of supply-demand balance [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is identified as a key pathway for breaking through the challenges faced by the refining industry, with a shift from "fuel" to "materials" and from "low value" to "high value" [4] - There is a notable demand for high-performance materials, with a significant gap in the production of high-end polyolefins, necessitating a focus on differentiated competition and market research [4] - Recent technological advancements include the development of green low-carbon "oil conversion" technologies and the DMTO technology, which improves resource utilization efficiency and reduces energy consumption [5][6] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The refining industry is entering a critical transformation period, with growth rates in market and capacity expected to stabilize during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The PX market is anticipated to recover due to tight supply, while the PTA-PET segment is expected to face long-term losses, necessitating adaptation to global economic changes [7] - In the polyester sector, total capacity is projected to remain at 85.28 million tons by 2025, with a gradual stabilization in PET demand growth despite some industrial transfer to Southeast Asia and the Middle East [8]