瞭望 | “充电”全球

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle (EV) market and the corresponding surge in demand for power batteries, with projections indicating that global annual sales of new energy vehicles will need to reach approximately 45 million by 2030, more than three times the sales in 2023 [1] - China's power battery industry is positioned to benefit significantly from this demand expansion, with expectations that global power battery demand will reach 3,500 GWh by 2030, over four times the shipment volume in 2023 [1][2] Industry Overview - The global demand for power batteries is increasingly focused on quality and technical standards, influenced by regulations such as the EU's Battery and Waste Battery Regulation and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which are reshaping the competitive landscape of the power battery industry [2] - China's power battery industry has established the most complete industrial chain globally, with production and sales expected to exceed 1.2 TWh in 2024, contributing approximately 70% of battery materials and 60% of power battery supply [2] Export Trends - Chinese power battery exports have accelerated, with a reported export volume of 111.5 GWh from January to August 2025, marking a 30.3% year-on-year increase and accounting for 64.4% of total production [4] - In the first half of 2025, Chinese companies occupied six of the top ten positions in global power battery installations, collectively holding a market share of 68.7% [5] Strategic Initiatives - Leading Chinese battery manufacturers are adopting localization strategies to enhance their influence in global supply chains, with companies like CATL establishing production bases in the U.S., Germany, Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia [6] - The focus on diversified market expansion includes deepening engagement in mature markets like Europe and the U.S., while also targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which are experiencing rapid growth and favorable policy support [7] Collaborative Ecosystem - The article highlights a collaborative model where battery manufacturers lead the charge, supported by upstream material and equipment companies, creating a robust industrial ecosystem that enhances international competitiveness and risk resilience [8] - This model allows companies to better navigate geopolitical challenges and trade barriers, transitioning from product exports to comprehensive outputs of technology, standards, and systems [8] Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the promising outlook, the industry faces challenges such as rising trade barriers, intense technical competition, resource supply vulnerabilities, and stringent compliance requirements [9][10] - To address these challenges, companies are encouraged to strengthen technological innovation, focus on next-generation battery technologies, and enhance local operational capabilities [12] - The article suggests that industry associations should promote self-regulation and price coordination, while governments should improve support policies and engage in international rule-making [12] Future Outlook - The future of China's power battery industry lies in transitioning from "product export" to "system export," aiming to create globally competitive brands that contribute significantly to the global green energy transition [13]