玉渊谭天丨美国或失1600万吨大豆订单

Group 1 - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has decreased by 56% from January to September, dropping from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [2] - Since May, an average of over 40 grain transport ships from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have been docking monthly at the terminal, with 90% of these shipments consisting of soybeans [2] - Soybeans are crucial for U.S. agricultural exports, with projected exports valued at $24.58 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports, and China purchasing over half of this amount, valued at $12.64 billion [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the U.S. is expected to export nearly 27 million tons of soybeans to China, but from January to July this year, exports were only 5.9 million tons, as China ceased purchases of U.S. soybeans since May [2] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, the potential loss of soybean orders could reach 14 to 16 million tons, equating to losing half of the market [2] - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra noting that soybean prices have further declined, giving China more leverage in negotiations [3]