玉渊谭天：美国或失1600万吨大豆订单

Core Viewpoint - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has significantly decreased, with a 56% drop from 72 ships to 32 ships in the first nine months of the year, primarily due to a complete halt in shipments since July [1] Group 1: U.S. Grain Exports - The decline in U.S. grain transport ships is attributed to a cessation of soybean purchases by China since May, which is critical as soybeans account for a significant portion of U.S. agricultural exports [1] - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports are projected to reach $24.58 billion, making it the top agricultural export and representing 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports [1] - China is a major buyer, purchasing over half of U.S. soybeans valued at $12.64 billion, with nearly 27 million tons exported to China in 2024 [1] Group 2: Impact of China's Purchasing Decisions - From January to July this year, U.S. soybean exports to China were only 5.9 million tons, indicating a significant drop in trade volume [1] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not resume purchases by mid-November, the U.S. could lose soybean orders to China amounting to 14 to 16 million tons [1] - The loss of the Chinese market equates to losing half of the U.S. soybean export market, highlighting the critical nature of this trade relationship [1]