Core Insights - The global LCD TV panel market is entering a positive profit cycle as manufacturers shift from "production-driven sales" to "sales-driven production" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market share of leading manufacturers is expected to stabilize above 70% starting in 2026, establishing a foundation for steady operations in the TV panel market [2] - The concentration of LCD TV panel production capacity in mainland China has led to a competitive landscape dominated by BOE and TCL CSOT [2] - By 2025, TCL CSOT's market share is projected to increase from 20% to 24%, while BOE's share is expected to rise from 26% to 32% by 2026, resulting in a combined market share of approximately 72% for the top three manufacturers [2] Group 2: Cost Competitiveness - The depreciation completion rate for TV panels is anticipated to exceed 50% by 2026, enhancing cost competitiveness for mainstream sizes over the next three years [4] - The G8.5 production lines will complete depreciation by 2025, leading to cost advantages for 32-inch and 55-inch panels [5] - The G10.5 production lines will enter a rapid depreciation phase from 2025 to 2029, significantly improving the cost competitiveness of key products like 43-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels [5] Group 3: Size Trends - The transition to larger sizes in the TV panel market faces challenges, with average size growth expected to stagnate in 2025 due to demand exhaustion and competitive pressures [7] - Despite the challenges, the completion of G8.6 and G10.5 depreciation is expected to enhance the cost competitiveness of large-size panels, driving growth in the segment [8] - The average size of LCD TV panels has surpassed 51 inches, making further growth more difficult [7] Group 4: Production Efficiency - A production utilization rate of 84% ± 3% is identified as the optimal range for maintaining profits in G10.5 production lines, balancing depreciation and profit [9] - The current production strategy of "demand-driven production" is crucial for sustained profitability, but it may lead to imbalances in profit distribution across the supply chain [9] - Upstream panel manufacturers are currently enjoying good profit levels, while downstream brand manufacturers face significant losses due to external pressures [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - The industry should focus on high concentration, accelerated depreciation, large-size trends, and stable production strategies to achieve "long-termism" [10] - Panel manufacturers are encouraged to collaborate with downstream brands to explore stable demand for large sizes and optimize product structure and production efficiency [10] - A balanced approach to production control is necessary to ensure equitable profit distribution across the industry chain, promoting healthy development of the TV industry [10]
群智咨询：全球LCD TV面板市场进入良性利润循环周期 关注电视面板“四大锚点”
智通财经网·2025-10-14 06:17