首尔房价过热或耽搁降息步伐 经济学家预计韩国央行本月将按兵不动

Group 1 - Increasing number of economists expect the Bank of Korea to maintain interest rates this month despite a willingness among board members to cut rates, due to rising financial stability risks from rebounding housing prices in Seoul [1][2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for Korea, Kathleen Oh, anticipates a pause in rate cuts in October, with a potential resumption in November, indicating a shift from previous expectations of immediate action [1][2] - As of the end of September, Seoul's apartment prices have risen for 35 consecutive weeks, presenting challenges for the Bank of Korea, which has kept rates unchanged in recent meetings due to concerns over real estate-related financial stability risks [1] Group 2 - In the recent meeting on August 28, five out of six board members expressed a willingness to cut rates within the next three months, with external stability risks highlighted due to uncertainties in US-Korea trade negotiations [2] - HSBC also expects the Bank of Korea to hold rates steady this month, citing increased financial stability concerns and a hawkish shift in recent communications [2] - The overall economic pressure in Korea is exacerbated by stalled negotiations with the US regarding tariffs and investment commitments, impacting the competitiveness of Korean automotive manufacturers [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's Oh notes that the policy outlook remains unclear for 2026, with heightened sensitivity to housing issues and ongoing export risks [3] - The Bank of Korea's concerns about the real estate market are deemed more significant than uncertainties surrounding exports unless unexpected shocks occur [3]