金价屡创新高时，更需回望那些熊市刻下的投资警示

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $4160 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over $1500 per ounce this year, while COMEX gold futures reported $4172.1 per ounce, up 0.95% for the day [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with several brands exceeding 1200 yuan per gram, indicating a strong correlation with international market fluctuations [2] - Despite the bullish sentiment surrounding gold, seasoned investors are urged to maintain a level of caution, as historical trends show that markets do not only rise, and prolonged bear markets can follow periods of exuberance [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the first significant bear market for gold from 1975 to 1976, where prices fell from $195 per ounce to $102 per ounce, a decline of nearly 50%, triggered by a temporary drop in U.S. inflation and a recovery in dollar credit [3] - The prolonged bear market from 1980 to 1999 saw gold prices plummet from $850 per ounce to $250 per ounce, a staggering 70% drop, influenced by aggressive interest rate hikes and a coordinated sell-off of gold reserves by European central banks [4] - In 2008, during the global financial crisis, gold prices fell from $1033 per ounce to $680 per ounce, a 34% decrease, as liquidity demands forced investors to sell gold along with other assets [5] - The bear market from 2011 to 2015 saw gold peak at $1920 per ounce before falling to $1046 per ounce, a 46% decline, driven by the Federal Reserve's signals to taper quantitative easing and a strengthening dollar [6] Group 3 - Current market signals suggest potential risks for gold, with high speculative net long positions in COMEX gold, which could lead to a rapid decline if market sentiment shifts [8] - The article warns that despite the current dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, inflation pressures could prompt a return to interest rate hikes, echoing the risks seen in 1980 [8] - The article emphasizes that gold should not be viewed as a guaranteed investment, recommending that it should not constitute more than 10% of household asset allocation, and advises against emotional trading behaviors [8]