智通财经网·2025-10-14 08:01Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a price recovery and improved profitability for coal companies, following a period of decline due to falling coal prices and poor profits [1] Supply - In July, China's raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons (-9.5%) month-on-month and 9 million tons (-3.8%) year-on-year; in August, production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 6 million tons (-3.2%) [2] - The total coal production for 2025 is projected to be approximately 4.71 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] - Coal imports showed a recovery in July and August, with July imports at 35.61 million tons (down 22.9% year-on-year) and August at 42.74 million tons (down 6.7% year-on-year) [2] Demand - The expectation of a cold winter is likely to increase demand in November and December, with a projected year-on-year growth in national electricity consumption of 5%-6% for 2025 [3] - Chemical coal demand remains high, with significant year-on-year increases in coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol production [3] Inventory - Inventory pressures across various segments have eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [4] - Mainstream port inventories have decreased to 60.43 million tons, down from mid-May highs, and coal company sales have improved [4] Price - The tightening supply expectations have raised the bottom price for coal, with the fourth-quarter price expected to center around 750 yuan/ton [5] - The focus on production checks and stricter safety inspections has contributed to the price rebound [5] Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a cyclical low with high PE and low PB ratios, indicating potential for rebound as coal prices rise [6] - Recommended stocks include: - Elastic stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001.SH) [6] - Growth stocks: Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ), Huayang Co. (600348.SH) [6] - Long-term stable stocks: China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [6]