10月份主产蛋鸡存栏占比或进一步提高

Core Insights - The structure of egg-laying hens in September 2025 continues to show a trend of reduction at both ends and expansion in the middle, influenced by the release of new production capacity and a decrease in the reluctance of farmers to sell [1][5] Group 1: Egg-Laying Hen Inventory Structure - In September 2025, the proportion of backup hens (under 120 days old) and old hens (over 450 days old) decreased, while the proportion of main production hens (120-450 days old) increased [1] - The expected decrease in chick sales and the potential increase in the number of old hens being sold may lead to a further increase in the proportion of main production hens in October [1][7] Group 2: Chick Sales Trends - Chick sales in 2025 showed a trend of increase followed by a decrease, with a significant decline in sales from May to September, where September saw a month-on-month drop exceeding 1.50% [3] - The decrease in chick sales has resulted in a situation where the new additions to the backup hen population are less than the reductions, leading to a 0.26 percentage point decrease in the proportion of backup hens in September [3] Group 3: Main Production Hens Dynamics - The proportion of main production hens continued to expand in September due to the number of new hens exceeding the number of old hens being sold, with a month-on-month increase of 0.42 percentage points [5] - The increase in the number of old hens being sold, which rose over 10.00% month-on-month, combined with a decrease in the number of hens being added, contributed to a 0.16 percentage point decrease in the proportion of hens awaiting sale [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - In October, the overall expectation is for an increase in the proportion of main production hens, while the proportions of backup and hens awaiting sale may decline [7] - The cautious mindset of farmers regarding replenishment, due to lower-than-expected egg price increases, is likely to lead to a continued decrease in the proportion of backup hens [7] - The anticipated drop in egg prices in October may further accelerate the selling of old hens, leading to a decrease in the proportion of hens awaiting sale [7]