Core Viewpoint - The British pound has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar in over two months, driven by increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England following disappointing labor market data [1] Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The pound dropped as much as 0.6% to 1.3253 USD, marking its lowest point since August 1 [1] - The currency market is now pricing in nearly a 9 basis point cut by the Bank of England by the end of the year, a shift from previous expectations of no cuts [1] - The latest employment report revealed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and a significant slowdown in private sector wage growth, indicating negative signals for the UK labor market [1] Group 2: Bond Market Reaction - Following the labor data release, UK government bonds across all maturities strengthened, with the 10-year bond yield dropping by as much as 5 basis points to 4.60%, the lowest since mid-September [1] - A decline in bond yields typically indicates a rise in bond prices, reflecting increased demand for government debt [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Options market indicators show a significant bearish sentiment towards the pound, with traders betting on continued declines [1] - Analysts suggest that the pound's decline may be temporary, as the labor report does not fundamentally alter the market's expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate path [4] - The current Bank Rate is maintained at 4.00%, with a split among policymakers regarding future rate cuts, indicating ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy [4][5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Since initiating a loosening cycle in August 2024, the Bank of England has cut rates five times, totaling 125 basis points [5] - Divergent views among Monetary Policy Committee members exist, with some advocating for a cautious approach to inflation and others pushing for quicker rate cuts [5]
英国就业市场降温触发降息预期升级 英镑兑美元创8月以来新低
智通财经网·2025-10-14 08:40