智通财经网·2025-10-14 09:10Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain a growth trend in net profit for Q3 2025, continuing the over 50% year-on-year increase seen in the first half of 2025, driven by strong market trading volumes [1][8]. Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q3 2025 reached 2.04 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 153% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37% [1][3]. - The average margin financing and securities lending balance for Q3 2025 was 2.12 trillion yuan, up 49% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The Hong Kong market saw an average daily turnover (ADT) of 2,550 billion HKD year-to-date, a 93% increase compared to 2024 [6][7]. Investment Business - The stock market performed well, with key indices reaching new highs in 2025: the CSI 300 index increased by 17.90%, the ChiNext index by 50.40%, and the STAR 50 index by 49.02% [1][2]. Bond Market - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.86% during the reporting period, while the CSI All Bond Index fell by 1.78% [2]. - Despite an increase in equity exposure by most brokerages, the bond market's decline led to a slight decrease in proprietary trading income for Q3 2025 [2]. Brokerage and Margin Financing Business - The brokerage sector is expected to generate 437 billion yuan in revenue for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 111% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43% [3]. - New A-share accounts opened in September 2025 totaled 2.9372 million, marking a 61% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Banking Business - The A-share IPO scale for Q3 2025 was 38 billion yuan, up 148% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The total scale of refinancing (including private placements, rights issues, and preferred shares) was 74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189% [4]. Asset Management Business - The market saw a significant recovery in newly established equity funds, with 2,093 million units created in Q3 2025, a 304% year-on-year increase [5]. - The total scale of ETFs reached 5.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 31% increase from the end of Q2 2025 [5]. International Business - The performance of the Hong Kong market and IPO activities has been active, with 71 new companies listed year-to-date, raising 187.3 billion HKD [6][7]. - The top brokerages are expected to maintain high growth in their overseas businesses, particularly those that completed capital increases for international subsidiaries [7]. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to achieve a net profit of 610 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54% [8]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in three main lines: strong comprehensive institutions benefiting from industry competition optimization, brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business competitiveness [8].