PepsiCo(US:PEP) 智通财经网·2025-10-14 09:17Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "Hold" rating to PepsiCo (PEP.US) with a target price of $165, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $203.58 billion and a 52-week stock price range of $177.50 to $127.60 [1] Financial Summary - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2028 are $8.16, $8.12, $8.55, and $9.07, respectively, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 18.6x to 16.6x [1] - Dividend yield is projected to increase from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2028, indicating long-term return potential [1] Market Strategy - PepsiCo's Q4 EPS is expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth, driven by productivity improvements, accelerated growth in international beverage business, currency advantages, and cost control [1] - Specific measures include the closure of two factories and a reduction of 7,000 employees in the North American snacks business to enhance automation levels [1] - The North American beverage business is addressing overcapacity issues through manufacturing and distribution adjustments [1] - The global capability center, although starting later, has significantly optimized labor and automation efficiency [1] Marketing and Sales Performance - Although marketing expenditure as a percentage of sales has slightly decreased, the company has maintained advertising effectiveness through productivity improvements and optimized digital spending [1] - International beverage sales volume declined by 5% year-over-year in Q3, but growth is expected to resume in Q4, with international business projected to contribute 40% of total revenue in the long term [1] Valuation Analysis - The target price is based on a 2027 P/E ratio of 18x, which is approximately a 10% discount compared to peers like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, primarily due to weak market share trends in the U.S. and potential reinvestment needs [2] - This discount is partially offset by productivity improvements and international growth potential [2] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include high-profit contributions from international business, margin expansion in North American beverages driven by product portfolio reshaping, and cost curve optimization in the snacks business through reduced fixed costs [2] Risk Factors - Upside risks include recovery in snack revenue, strong performance in international business, margin improvement, and recovery of market share in North American beverages [2] - Downside risks involve insufficient reinvestment returns, macroeconomic fluctuations, slow recovery in North American business volume, commodity and currency volatility, continued weakness in beverage market share, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on consumer behavior [2]