Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-10-14 09:20Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Wuliangye Group is striving to achieve its annual targets despite a divergence between short-term performance and stock prices [1] - Since 2021, there has been a disconnection between stock prices and ROE, indicating that performance is a lagging indicator [1] - Following the "924 New Policy" last year, the stock prices of the liquor sector have diverged from performance changes, with brands like Guojiao and Luzhou Laojiao showing significant price increases despite downward revisions in performance [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the current economic outlook is improving, similar to 2014, leading to a phase where stock prices and earnings forecasts are misaligned, with the market focusing more on actual operations and favoring turnaround candidates [1] - Wuliangye's product prices have significantly declined, while Guojiao has managed to outperform in this context [1] - The company currently has ample cash on hand, and the dividend yield provides some support for the stock price [1] Group 3 - Given the pressure on high-end liquor demand, Wuliangye's volume and price relationship needs to be rebalanced, prompting an adjustment in profit forecasts [1] - The projected net profit for the parent company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 26.5 billion, 23.7 billion, and 24.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -17%, -11%, and +2% respectively [1] - A valuation of 121.87 yuan per share is suggested based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026, with a "Hold" rating assigned [1]