Why Dogecoin Could Revisit Its 13-Month Low Despite a 5% Recovery

Core Insights - Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a modest 5% rebound following a price crash to a September 2024 low during the Black Friday sell-off, but this recovery may lack genuine investor demand [1][2] - On-chain data indicates a steady decline in new demand for DOGE, with a 40% drop in unique addresses interacting with the asset since the Black Friday event [2][4] - The increase in DOGE's liveliness suggests that long-term holders are taking the opportunity to sell their holdings, raising the likelihood of a near-term price correction [4][6] Market Activity - The number of new addresses for DOGE transactions has decreased significantly, with only 18,251 unique addresses recorded recently compared to 30,534 during the Black Friday liquidation [2][4] - DOGE is currently trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.249, indicating bearish control and a potential downward trend towards the next support level at $0.167 [7][8] Investor Behavior - The liveliness metric for DOGE has been rising, indicating that long-term holders are moving or selling their assets, which typically signals profit-taking rather than accumulation [5][6] - Without renewed buyer interest or increased network activity, the current price rebound may not be sustainable, putting DOGE at risk of further declines [4][8]