机构称游戏高增或才刚刚开始，游戏ETF（159869）现小幅微涨

Core Insights - The gaming sector showed slight fluctuations after a strong opening on October 14, with the gaming ETF (159869) experiencing a peak increase of over 2% and currently showing a minor rise. [1] - As of October 13, the gaming ETF (159869) has seen a net inflow of 1.404 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest, with the product's scale reaching 10.748 billion yuan. [1] Market Size and Performance - According to Zheshang Securities, the Chinese gaming market is expected to maintain a high level in Q3 2025, although it may see a year-on-year decline due to a high base effect. [2] - The projected market sizes for July and August 2025 are 29.1 billion yuan and 29.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.62% and -13.01%, respectively. The significant decline in August is attributed to the high base set by the game "Black Myth: Wukong" in August 2024. [1][2] - If the gaming market size in September 2025 remains relatively stable, the estimated market size for Q3 2025 would be approximately 87.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of +0.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of +6.2%. [1] Factors Influencing Market Trends - The sustained high level of the gaming market in Q3 2025 is attributed to factors such as the "lipstick effect" from slowing economic growth, which boosts discretionary spending, and the release of multiple blockbuster games in the first half of 2025. [2] - Notable blockbuster games include "Endless Winter" and "Bouncing Kingdom" from ST Huatuo, "Supernatural Action Group" from Giant Network, and "Delta Action" from Tencent Holdings. [2] - The gaming market is expected to experience a slight quarter-on-quarter decline but a year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, driven by a significant rise in the number of blockbuster games compared to 2024. [2] Investment Opportunities - The gaming sector is undergoing transformations in AI, content, and commercialization models, presenting multiple catalysts for growth. [2] - The gaming ETF (159869) tracks the CSI Animation and Gaming Index, reflecting the overall performance of A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities. [2]