9月物价前瞻：翘尾因素拖累减弱，PPI同比降幅有望收窄

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decline in pork prices continues, but the core CPI is expected to maintain its growth, leading to a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline in CPI for September [2][3] - Predictions for September's CPI year-on-year growth from various institutions range from -0.3% to -0.1%, indicating a consensus that the decline may be less severe than in August, which saw a 0.4% drop [2] - The wholesale price of pork is expected to continue weakening, with a year-on-year decline widening from 25.0% to 26.3% due to oversupply in the market [2] Group 2 - The decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to narrow in September, influenced by a reduction in the drag from base effects [3] - Predictions for September's PPI year-on-year growth from various institutions range from -2.5% to -2.3%, reflecting expectations of a slight recovery [3] - The base effect from the previous year is expected to contribute to a narrowing of the PPI decline, with the drag from the base effect decreasing to -0.1% in September [3] Group 3 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September indicates a slight decline in the main raw material purchasing price index and the factory price index compared to August, suggesting a potential further weakening of PPI [4] - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 14.7% to 7.3% in September, influenced by OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Domestic commodity prices are experiencing mixed performance, with coal prices rebounding due to local production checks, while rebar prices are declining due to weak demand and inventory pressures [4]