AI带来史无前例“电力牛市”! 高盛“6P法则”揭示AI时代的电力财富密码

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its forecast for global data center electricity demand, projecting a 175% increase by 2030 compared to 2023, driven primarily by AI applications [1][2] - The firm emphasizes that AI models are fundamentally reliant on electricity, leading to a "super bull market" for electricity stocks [1] - The competition in AI is fundamentally a race for computational infrastructure, which is heavily dependent on a stable and substantial electricity supply [1][2] Electricity Demand Projections - By 2030, global data center electricity demand is expected to exceed 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), more than Japan's current total electricity consumption, with AI applications being the main driver of this growth [2] - AI-focused data centers are projected to see their electricity demand increase by over four times by 2030 [2] Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs recommends investors focus on three main pillars: reliability, availability, and efficiency, while investing in the electricity supply chain [3] - Suggested investment areas include power generation and fuel, electrical equipment and system integration, engineering EPC/transmission and distribution construction, and cooling and efficiency management [3][12] Key Drivers and Constraints - The report identifies six key drivers and constraints in the global electricity market: Pervasiveness, Productivity, Prices, Policy, Parts, and People [4] - The "Jevons Paradox" indicates that total electricity demand will continue to rise due to AI penetration, despite improvements in efficiency [4] Pricing and Policy Insights - The average low-carbon cost in the U.S. is approximately $40 per megawatt-hour (MWh), with expectations of rising costs as policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) phase out [7] - The U.S. electricity sector is experiencing a trend of rapid installation and grid connection to secure incentives, with permitting and site selection being critical non-price constraints [10] Labor Market and Capacity Needs - A significant labor shortage is anticipated in the global electricity market, with the U.S. needing approximately 300,000 new power-related jobs by 2030 [10] - To meet the electricity demand from data centers by 2030, an estimated 82 gigawatts (GW) of new generation capacity will be required [11] Recommended Stocks and Sectors - Goldman Sachs suggests investing in companies that can quickly connect to the grid and have strong load-following capabilities, such as NextEra Energy and Kinder Morgan [12] - In the electrical equipment and system integration sector, companies like Schneider Electric and Siemens are highlighted as beneficiaries of high capital expenditure from tech giants [12][13]