中东楼市涌入中国投资客，高收益背后风险伴生

Core Insights - The UAE's real estate market, particularly in cities like Abu Dhabi and Dubai, is experiencing significant growth, with rising prices and transaction volumes driven by increased interest from Chinese buyers [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Abu Dhabi's residential market saw a 30% increase in transaction value, reaching 219 billion dirhams (approximately 426 billion RMB), with prices rising 17% to an average of 3.3 million dirhams (approximately 6.41 million RMB) per unit [3] - Dubai's real estate market recorded its highest transaction volume ever, with 98,726 sales transactions in the first half of 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase, and total transaction value reaching 326.9 billion dirhams (approximately 635.4 billion RMB), over ten times higher than in 2020 [3] - The average residential price in Dubai is approximately 38,200 RMB per square meter, while Abu Dhabi's average is around 19,900 RMB per square meter [3] Group 2: Chinese Buyer Influence - Chinese buyers accounted for 8% of all real estate transactions in Dubai in 2024, moving from ninth to fourth place among international buyers [4][5] - The purchasing volume from Chinese buyers has tripled over the past three years, with sales in the first half of 2025 reaching 17 billion dirhams (approximately 33 billion RMB), surpassing the total for 2024 [2][4] Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - The UAE's economy showed resilience in 2024, with a 4% year-on-year GDP growth, and the non-oil sector contributing 75.5% to the total GDP, a historical high [6] - The UAE has implemented policies such as the "Golden Visa" program to attract foreign investors, allowing for long-term residency and easing investment requirements [7][8] - Recent policy changes have eliminated minimum down payment requirements and allowed for off-plan property purchases, stimulating the market further [7] Group 4: Rental Yields - As of Q3 2023, Dubai's average gross rental yield stands at approximately 6.31%, while Abu Dhabi's is around 6%, with some premium areas reaching yields of 8% to 9% [9][10] - The rental yield for high-end properties in Dubai is projected to be 5.3% in 2024, ranking second globally [10]