战略小金属 迎高光时刻！这些领域需求爆发

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector is experiencing a continuous rise in prosperity driven by high-end manufacturing and cutting-edge technology, with increasing market attention on strategic metals such as rare earths, molybdenum, antimony, tantalum, and niobium since mid-October [1][2]. Policy Perspective - In September, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the value added of the nonferrous metals industry and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten nonferrous metals by 2026 [1]. - The plan outlines key objectives for 2025-2026, including maintaining positive economic benefits, achieving significant progress in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium, surpassing 20 million tons in recycled metal production, enhancing the supply capacity of high-end products, and improving green, low-carbon, and digital development levels [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of small metals is tightening, with global production of tungsten, molybdenum, bismuth, germanium, and antimony experiencing fluctuations downward over the past decade due to capacity exit and insufficient investment, leading to a price surge in related small metals [2]. - For instance, Northern Rare Earth announced a price increase for rare earth concentrates to 26,205 yuan/ton (approximately $3,600) for Q4, marking a 37% increase from the previous quarter [2]. - Northern Rare Earth's performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2025 indicates an expected net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan (approximately $210 million to $220 million), representing a year-on-year growth of 272.54% to 287.34% [2]. Emerging Applications - The application of small metals in emerging fields is expanding, creating new growth opportunities for the industry [4]. - Controlled nuclear fusion, as a significant future energy direction, has garnered high market attention and presents potential application markets for tantalum and niobium [5]. - Companies like Dongfang Tantalum Industry have achieved breakthroughs in producing high-purity tantalum powder and ingots, which are critical for semiconductor applications [5]. - The advancement of AI technology is driving upgrades in electronic materials, with over 50% of tantalum's downstream applications in the electronics sector, suggesting a potential increase in demand for tantalum capacitors and semiconductor targets [5]. - The renewable energy sector also offers a broad market for small metals, with demand for tungsten in photovoltaic applications expected to grow by about 10% annually [5]. Market Sentiment - The strategic small metals' "non-replaceability" is becoming increasingly prominent, with market analysts noting a re-evaluation of their "classical safe-haven" value amid macroeconomic conditions such as monetary easing [3][5]. - The combination of commodity and financial attributes of small metals is positioning them as a focal point for capital allocation [5].