从产业利润分解来看，预计10月双焦价格或承压

Core Insights - The black metal industry chain is experiencing a downward trend in steel prices due to an oversupply situation, leading to a significant contraction in steel mill profits, while upstream coal mines are benefiting from price increases [1][4][6] Industry Overview - In September, domestic coking coal prices initially decreased before rising, with the average price in Shanxi province reaching 1490 RMB/ton by September 29, an increase of 90 RMB/ton or 6.43% from the monthly low, and a year-to-date increase of 90 RMB/ton [1] - Coking coal's average price for September was around 1440 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15 RMB/ton [1] Coking Coal and Coke Prices - Coking coal prices have shown a mixed trend, while coke prices have stabilized after a decline, with an average profit for metallurgical coke in Hebei dropping to -42 RMB/ton by September 25, a decrease of 61 RMB/ton from the previous month [2] - The overall profit margins for coking plants have been squeezed due to the contrasting price movements of coking coal and coke [2] Steel Mill Performance - Steel mills are facing reduced profit margins as steel prices decline, with average profits for steel products significantly decreasing in September [4] - The average profit for steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei, was 29.43 RMB/ton, down 64.52 RMB/ton or approximately 68.67% from the previous month [4] - Rebar averaged a loss of 72.15 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90.22 RMB/ton or 125.05% from August [4] Market Demand and Price Trends - Domestic demand for steel is weak, leading to an accumulation of inventory and a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices in Beijing dropping to 3130 RMB/ton, a decrease of 60 RMB/ton or 1.88% from the previous month [5] - Year-on-year, rebar prices have fallen by 320 RMB/ton or 9.28% [5] Future Outlook - The current strong coking coal prices are benefiting coal mines, while coking plants are operating below breakeven levels [6] - As steel inventories continue to rise, the likelihood of further declines in steel prices is high, prompting steel mills to focus on reducing raw material costs to maintain profitability [6]