Hiring Hits a Wall: Private Labor Data Flags Economic Softness

Core Insights - The absence of official labor data due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty in the market, with private reports indicating a gradual deceleration in the labor market [1][5]. Labor Market Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report for September indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs, marking one of the weakest readings since the pandemic, released just as the government shutdown began [2]. - Revelio Labs' Public Labor Statistics reported a modest gain of 60,000 nonfarm jobs for September, while Indeed's job postings showed a sharp decline throughout the year, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labor market [3]. - The Challenger Job Cuts Report revealed that 948,000 job cuts have been announced this year, the highest year-to-date total since 2020, with 299,000 cuts from the government sector [4]. Hiring Trends - Employers have announced plans to hire only 205,000 workers this year, the lowest year-to-date hiring figure since 2009, indicating a stagnant labor market [4]. - The combination of these private data sources suggests a weakening labor market, with hiring activity at some of the lowest levels seen since 2009 [5]. Implications for Monetary Policy - For the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), these figures provide justification for potential rate cuts to support employment, although this stance may change if inflation accelerates unexpectedly [5].