Powell’s NABE Speech Could Spark Market Volatility as Bitcoin Tests $108K-$110K Support

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is highly anticipated as it may provide insights into US interest rate policies amid market volatility and economic uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Futures markets indicate a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 89% probability of another cut in December, reflecting expectations for monetary easing due to signs of economic slowdown [1]. - Analysts warn that if Powell suggests interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period, it could lead to renewed sell-offs in both traditional and crypto markets [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The speech occurs during a period of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, exacerbated by Donald Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which caused a decline in risk assets [3]. - A U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including consumer inflation and wholesale cost reports, limiting visibility for investors and policymakers [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Powell's remarks are seen as critical indicators of the Fed's current stance, with potential policy easing likely to boost market sentiment and turn risk assets bullish [4]. - The crypto market is currently experiencing a downturn, with Bitcoin priced at $111,000, and analysts identify the $108,000-$110,000 range as a crucial support zone [5]. - Despite short-term volatility, analysts predict a market surge in the coming months, with traders seeking promising penny cryptocurrencies [6].