【财经分析】新加坡经济从三季度“超预期”走向2026年的“放缓风险”

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's economy is projected to grow by 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains its current monetary policy stance to retain flexibility amid future uncertainties [1][3]. Economic Performance - The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth for Singapore's economy in Q3 was 1.3%, with an average GDP growth rate of 3.9% for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - The manufacturing sector showed mixed results, with a year-on-year output flat at 0.0%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%, driven by strong demand for AI-related investments in electronics and precision engineering [2]. - The construction sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, although it contracted by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a short-term slowdown [2]. - The services sector demonstrated robust growth, expanding by 3.5% year-on-year, supported by demand in wholesale trade, IT services, financial services, and a rebound in international tourism [2]. Market Predictions - Several market institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for Singapore in 2025, with DBS Bank increasing its prediction from 2.0% to 3.5%, and Maybank adjusting its forecast from 3.2% to 3.5% [3]. - However, analysts express caution regarding 2026, predicting a slowdown to 1.8% due to adverse factors such as U.S. tariff policies and diminishing export support [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The MAS decided to maintain its nominal effective exchange rate policy unchanged, reflecting a forward-looking stance despite low current core inflation [5]. - The MAS anticipates core inflation to gradually rise to a range of 0.5% to 1.5% by 2026, while the output gap is expected to remain positive in 2025, indicating the economy is operating slightly above its long-term potential [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that maintaining the current policy allows for "insurance easing" options in response to potential economic slowdowns in 2026 [6].