IMF：全球经济增长小幅上修但风险积聚

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, while maintaining growth rates for 2024 and 2026 at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively [1] - Despite a more accommodative financial environment and limited trade shocks, the IMF emphasizes significant downside risks to global growth, particularly from escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The IMF projects that global inflation will decrease from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and further to 3.7% in 2026, although there is notable regional divergence [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding the impact of rising artificial intelligence investments on consumer prices, which may necessitate tighter monetary policies [1] Latin America and the Caribbean - The growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean for 2025 has been raised from 2.2% to 2.4%, but the 2026 forecast has been lowered from 2.4% to 2.3% [2] - Mexico's growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly increased from 0.2% to 1.0%, while Brazil's has been slightly raised to 2.4% for 2025 but lowered to 1.9% for 2026 [2] - Argentina's growth outlook has worsened, with the 2025 forecast reduced from 5.5% to 4.5% [2] Eurozone Economic Conditions - The IMF has raised the Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 from 1.0% to 1.2%, but has lowered the 2026 forecast from 1.2% to 1.1% [3] - The report indicates that current growth is achieved at a high fiscal cost, with debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 87% in 2024 to 92% by 2030 [3] Japan's Economic Outlook - Japan's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 0.7% to 1.1%, with a projected growth of 0.6% for 2026 [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually increase interest rates to 1.5%, which is considered neutral for the economy and aligned with inflation targets [4] UK Economic Performance - The UK's growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%, with the same forecast for 2026 [5] - The UK is expected to maintain the highest inflation rate in the G7 at 3.4% and 2.5% for the next two years, which constrains the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates [5] Saudi Arabia's Economic Growth - Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 3% to 4%, with the same forecast for 2026 [6] - The increase is attributed to the faster-than-expected exit from oil production cuts, with non-oil sector growth significantly contributing to the overall GDP growth [7]