供需面有支撑、政策面存利多 四季度豆油或偏强运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market experienced fluctuations in Q3 2025, initially supported by costs and fundamentals, but later declined due to external market influences and unexpected news. The outlook for Q4 suggests a potential for stronger soybean oil prices due to tightening supply and ongoing supportive factors in the domestic and international vegetable oil markets [1][7]. Group 1: Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the price of domestic first-grade soybean oil first rose and then fell, reaching a low of 8069 CNY/ton on July 7 and a high of 8730 CNY/ton on August 13. The average price for the quarter was 8428 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.08% increase from the previous quarter and a 7.30% increase year-on-year [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics in Q3 showed an increase in both supply and demand for soybean oil, but the growth in inventory limited the price increase [1][5]. Group 2: Import Costs and Supply - The increase in soybean import costs was a significant factor supporting soybean oil prices in Q3. The cost of imported soybeans rose to 4130 CNY/ton, up 6.63% quarter-on-quarter and 3.92% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for Brazilian soybeans amid ongoing trade issues [3]. - The volume of soybean imports increased, with China importing 8618 million tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%. The average operating rate of key domestic crushing enterprises was 67%, up 11 percentage points from the previous quarter, resulting in a soybean oil output of 527 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.56% [3]. Group 3: Demand and Inventory - Domestic demand for soybean oil saw limited growth in Q3, with total consumption reaching 497 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.18%. However, the increase in production led to a significant rise in inventory, with port soybean oil stocks reaching 122 million tons, up 41.86% from the previous quarter [5]. - The demand situation was influenced by seasonal factors and market uncertainties, leading to increased purchasing activity from downstream customers ahead of traditional holidays, despite a weaker restaurant industry impacting overall demand [5]. Group 4: External Market Influences - By the end of Q3, external market prices for soybean oil declined, with CBOT soybean oil dropping to 49.44 cents/pound, a decrease of 12.85% from its quarterly high, and Malaysian palm oil prices falling by 4.58% [7]. - Looking ahead to Q4, the supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to decline, and domestic oil mill operating rates are anticipated to decrease, tightening soybean oil supply. However, seasonal reductions in consumption are also expected [7]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The biodiesel policy remains a significant factor influencing the vegetable oil market, with expectations of increased demand supporting both domestic and international vegetable oil markets despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. biodiesel policy implementation [7]. - Overall, the soybean oil market is expected to experience a strong performance in Q4, with prices projected to range between 8300 and 8700 CNY/ton, supported by fundamental supply-demand factors and international market influences [7].