IMF上调全球增长预期 警告关税削弱增长前景

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for this year, indicating a fragile global economic outlook due to tariff impacts and rising protectionism [1] Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects a global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, and a growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the previous estimate [1] - For emerging markets and developing economies, the growth rate has been adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% for this year, while developed economies' growth rate has also been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.6% [1] Factors Influencing Growth - The upward revision in growth expectations is attributed to importers stockpiling goods ahead of U.S. tariff policies and efforts by most countries to maintain an open and stable global trade system [1] - However, the report warns that tariff shocks are further weakening the global economic growth outlook, with high uncertainty in trade policies, escalating protectionist measures, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and increasing fiscal vulnerabilities posing risks to the global economy [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The IMF notes significant signs of economic slowdown in the U.S., with employment data since July falling short of expectations, a notable decline in new job creation, and the unemployment rate rising to a nearly four-year high in August [1] Recommendations for Economic Stability - The IMF emphasizes the need for economies to ensure debt sustainability, eliminate trade policy uncertainties, and enhance cooperation to reduce trade and investment barriers [1]