Higher NII, Fee Income to Drive State Street's Q3 Earnings

Core Insights - State Street (STT) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 17, with anticipated year-over-year growth in revenues and earnings [1] Financial Performance - In Q2, STT's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by increased fee revenues and improvements in total assets under custody and administration (AUC/A) and assets under management (AUM) [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 earnings is $2.61 per share, reflecting a 15.5% increase from the previous year, while sales are projected at $3.46 billion, indicating a 3.7% year-over-year rise [3] Key Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings - Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to benefit from stabilized funding costs and higher rates, with the consensus estimate for NII at $739.6 million, a 2.2% increase [4][6] - Fee revenues are projected to rise due to increased foreign exchange trading volumes, with FX trading services income estimated at $386.8 million, a 3.4% year-over-year increase [7] - Management fees are expected to increase by 12.1% to $590.7 million, supported by market appreciation and inflows [8] - Servicing fees are projected to improve by 5.5% to $1.34 billion, driven by a healthy conversion rate from a backlog of servicing wins [9] - Total fee revenues are estimated to grow by 4.1% to $2.72 billion [12] Expense Outlook - Total adjusted non-interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 5.4% year-over-year to $2.43 billion, influenced by higher information systems costs and strategic investments [13] Earnings Prediction - The likelihood of STT beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate is high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.45% and a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [14][15]