【环球财经】荷兰商业银行：美元短期上行 而长期或回落至更低水平

Group 1 - The recent escalation of trade disputes has heightened market risk aversion, impacting the global foreign exchange market [1] - Safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and euro are in demand, while high-risk currencies like the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are being sold off [1] - The U.S. dollar, despite its safe-haven status, faces downward pressure in the event of further escalation, although short-term support may persist due to reassessment of its safe-haven status and expectations of U.S. policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the NFIB small business survey data for signals regarding economic direction, while Fed Chair Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance in his upcoming speech [1] - ING analysts predict that the U.S. dollar index may decline to lower levels by the end of the year as employment data worsens [1] Group 3 - The euro is unlikely to achieve a substantial rebound against the U.S. dollar in the absence of significant positive news, with the political situation in France being a major drag [2] - The upcoming budget proposal by French Prime Minister Lecornu is directly related to a confidence vote, and a potential government collapse could prevent the euro from benefiting from trade tensions, possibly leading it to test the 1.150 level against the dollar [2]