Matador Resources(US:MTDR) ZACKSยท2025-10-14 15:01Core Viewpoint - Matador Resources (MTDR) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite higher revenues for the quarter ended September 2025, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show earnings of $1.33 per share, reflecting a decline of 29.6% year-over-year, while revenues are projected to be $902.31 million, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year [3]. - The stock price may increase if the actual earnings exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline in stock price [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 4.07% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Matador is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -12.97%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [9][10]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [10]. Historical Performance - Matador has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +18.60% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. - Despite the historical performance, the current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 4 makes it challenging to predict an earnings beat for the upcoming report [12]. Conclusion - While Matador does not appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors before making investment decisions related to the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].