金价再创新高！底层逻辑是什么？

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, surpassing $4100 per ounce and approaching the $4200 mark, with historical highs being reached [1][3]. Gold Price Movement - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $4140.6 per ounce, up 0.76% for the day, with an intraday high of $4179.748 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a significant increase, rising 0.45% to $4151.7 per ounce, with a peak of $4190.9 per ounce [3][4]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The chief economist of Nanhua Futures, Zhu Bin, identifies three main reasons for the rise in gold prices: 1. The extensive issuance of currency by the U.S. has led to severe inflation and a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar [5]. 2. The U.S. government's misuse of the dollar's hegemonic status has undermined its position as a "safe asset" [6]. 3. Pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve has compromised its independence, shaking the foundation of the dollar as a global currency [6]. Investment Trends - Wang Zheng, general manager of Shangyi Investment, notes that the rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle typically leads to significant gains in gold [7]. 2. Global geopolitical risks and uncertainties are pushing funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. 3. Continuous gold purchases by central banks provide a solid support for gold prices, alongside a strategic demand for de-dollarization [7]. Market Dynamics - The chief asset research officer at GF Securities, Dai Kang, describes gold as a super-national sovereign credit, akin to a perpetual, non-interest-bearing bond. He suggests that the long-term investment logic for gold will be shaped by its super-national sovereign credit value [8]. - The ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt may continue to erode the credibility of the dollar, while the trend of de-dollarization, combined with geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold, is favorable for gold in the medium to long term [8]. Short-term Considerations - Wang Zheng cautions that gold prices may face technical pressure in the short term, suggesting a need for investors to be wary of potential pullbacks. He emphasizes that while the core value of gold remains intact, market conditions may require careful position adjustments [8].